As Election Day Approaches, Board Priorities Shift

2024 United States Presidential Election 

As Election Day 2024 approaches, directors and boards are increasingly focused on the election’s potential effects on the business environment and on society, as 28 percent of respondents included the 2024 United States election among their top-5 trends for the quarter. This is up from 18 percent of respondents in Q2.

Some respondents were concerned about changes to specific policies that would affect their industry. For example, one respondent was focused on the “impact on defense spending and timing of contract awards,” while another wondered “how the new administration will affect the oil and gas industry.” 

A common factor across many responses had to do with the “uncertainty” leading up to the election. One respondent felt that “the platforms vary dramatically and so do their implications for business practice.” Many respondents pondered the effect the election’s outcome would have on the business and regulatory environment, with one respondent noting that, “The regulatory and economic impacts will be significant.” While a few respondents expressed preferences for the policies of one candidate over the other, many struck a more ambivalent tone, with one respondent noting that “both will create some potential increased costs for companies,” and another that “either candidate poses challenges for us.”

Many respondents pointed to the state of political discourse, or as one respondent described it, the “heavily partisan politics.” Respondents detailed the effects that extreme political rhetoric might have on their businesses. One director, for example, expressed concerns that divisive partisan politics could cause rifts in the workforce. Elevated partisanship also affects strategic planning. While dubious campaign promises are a fixed feature of presidential elections, one director observed that the current political climate results in candidates espousing positions and policies that are not practically implementable postelection, magnifying uncertainty. In addition to uncertainty, another common theme was stability, such as the respondent concerned with “economic and political stability (or instability) following elections.” One director expressed concerns about the potential for broader social strife—or even violence—postelection. Another director expressed a hope that cooler heads will prevail: “We have a big divide in [the] USA political realm, and we are hoping that rational thinking focused on the best policies will carry the election.” 

Shifting Economic Conditions 

“Shifting economic conditions” was the most widely selected trend in the “Q3 2024” survey, after falling to the second position during Q2. This issue was selected by 58 percent of respondents, up from 43 percent of respondents in the “Q2 2024” survey. The September 16-17 meeting of the Federal Reserve, which occurred right in the middle of the survey fielding period and resulted in a 50-basis-point interest-rate cut, was clearly a factor in this increase. One respondent highlighted the “uncertain impact on interest rates.” Another said, “Positively, inflation appears to be subsiding, but with unemployment rising and interest rates remaining high, we’re in for another 9-12 [months] of uncertainty.” 

For others, economic concerns were tied to the election. In the words of one respondent, “The variability of the economic indicators is a challenging issue for boards. The fact that it is a presidential election year magnifies the uncertainty.” Another agreed: “The national elections here in the United States could result in business and consumer uncertainty and affect consumer and business spending.” 

Other respondents were primarily concerned with how economic shifts will “impact consumer spending and expense structure.” There was a perception shared by many that consumers are “stressed” by inflation, which could result in “consumers trading down or spending less.” It is worth noting, however, that the latest data from the Commerce Department during the time that the survey was in the field (July 2024) indicated that consumer spending continued to increase.