2054 Is a Long Way Off, until It Isn’t

Think back to your favorite television program from your teenage years. Now, think about the last time you watched it through a streaming service or on a television channel, perhaps with a child or grandchild watching with the vigor you had in the past. You probably remember the plot, the characters, and even a line or two from the show. Decades later you wonder, Where did the time go? Given the pace with which the business environment is changing, organizations shouldn’t be caught in that mind-set; instead, boards should remain forward-thinking to help their companies withstand the test of time.

Recently, EY had the engaged with group of directors in Mexico City to discuss complex, long-term topics and the future of their companies. EY showed these board members a glimpse of 2054 through an artificial intelligence-based immersive experience to reflect on climate change and to better understand how to think about the long-term implications of risk on their organizations. In this experience, directors entered a custom-built black room with four screens along the side walls that described scientifically based scenarios for the world 30 years in the future, given current climate and population forecasts. The simulation featured four avatars describing potential futures with the following societal, economic, and political structures:

• Business as usual. This scenario envisions a world that has seen no systemic change in current business, social, or political affairs. It projects a very large population, a warming planet, fragmented geopolitics, and a highly unequal distribution of resources and incomes.
• Collapse. This worst-case scenario presents a world that has seen the current political and economic system face a hot planet and shrinking population, the rapid decline of natural resources, a highly fragmented society, and fracturing geopolitics with persistent conflict.
• Constraint. This scenario imagines a world that has seen significant political, social, and economic transformation. Both environmental change and population growth have stabilized, natural resources and biodiversity have declined slowly, strong state intervention has forced transition, and geopolitics have become regional and protectionist.
• Transformation. This best-case scenario anticipates a transformed world. Population growth has steadied and the rate of rising temperatures has slowed, natural resources and biodiversity have seen an improvement, and climate action and geopolitics have become collaborative and systematic.

None were particularly uplifting, and each described a recognizable world, but one that many would likely not want to live in. Nearly every director who participated described being personally moved by such a realistic experience, and the directors were surprised by how easily inaction could lead to a slippery slope of decline. They recalled how they felt when observing and listening to the four scenarios, discussing whether they were anxious, sad, or angry and what caused those emotions. For many participants, this conversation was unusual in a professional setting. One participant reflected that, “As a board member, I have never been asked how I feel about something. I am often asked what I think and what we should do, but I am never asked about my personal feelings or emotions.”

Discussing personal responses to potential future outcomes can help directors focus on what actions their companies might take. After the immersive experience, participants noted the tensions between short-term financial objectives and long-term sustainability goals. The challenges of collective action and the absence of a global, coordinated approach to solving climate change were frustrating to many. In the end, a majority of participants committed to engaging with their companies on issues that impact the future and what business opportunities might lead to a long-term sustainable future with their CEOs and management teams.

Immersive experiences such as the one described above not only help directors think about a specific challenge, but they can also be used to develop the mind-set and skills to begin thinking about challenges that often seem too large, complex, or distant to approach. Actions that directors can take when approaching such topics include the following:

Reflect on one’s personal reaction and emotions. We are often taught that emotions and analytical thinking cannot coexist. However, reflecting on personal feelings can be helpful for several reasons. Unstated or unrecognized emotions can be a barrier to clear and careful thinking. It can be helpful to identify one’s feelings before recognizing them and acknowledging them aloud. Doing so can calm the mind and provide clearer perspectives. Additionally, others may be experiencing similar emotions and knowing this can bring groups into a solution-oriented discussion. Of course, individuals may react differently, but recognizing that these emotions are different can help leaders understand why there may be a difference of opinion on a solution or even the nature of the problem itself.

Consider multiple time frames. As mentioned above, the simulation considered how the world might look several decades from now. But to get to that future, organizations need to survive in the interim. Explicitly considering the near and long term, how companies should look in the future, and what they need to do to get there can help temper sacrificing both the future for the present and the present for the future.

Thirty years seems like a long time, until we look back and wonder how time passed so quickly. Board members can approach complex and long-term challenges by reflecting on their emotions to confirm that their organizations can withstand the various scenarios that the future may hold. After all, 2054 will be here before we know it.

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ernst & Young LLP or other members of the global EY organization.

The EY organization is a NACD sponsor, providing directors with critical and timely information, and perspectives. EY is a financial supporter of the NACD.

Bart Edgerton is an associate director with the EY Center for Board Matters Ernst & Young LLP.